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AUTO & PARTS:RETAIL SALES VOLUME SLIGHTLY BEAT EXPECTATIONS;

作者: 时间:2017-11-15 来源:
摘要:What's newThe China Passenger Cars Association announced Octoberoutput & sales ......

What's new
The China Passenger Cars Association announced Octoberoutput & sales data: the wholesale volume of narrowly definedpassenger vehicles rose 0.2% YoY and 0.6% MoM to 2.32mnunits; retail sales grew 2.6% YoY and 2.4% MoM to 2.25mn units.
Over January–October 2017, wholesale/retail volumes increased2.8%/2.1% YoY to 19.06mn/18.55mn units.
Comments
Wholesale volume negatively affected by the fewer workingdays in October; retail sales volume slightly beat expectation.
PV inventories stayed at a relatively low level.
The ASP continued to decline and discounts narrowed.
Japanese and German brands maintained relatively fast YoYgrowth in sales volume. Sales volume of South Korean brandsrecovered. Sedan sales volume declined YoY.
Details on the following pages.
Valuation and recommendation
Looking forward, we expect the PV segment to face bothopportunities and challenges in November and December.
Opportunities include: 1) strong purchase demand during the winter;2) increasing vehicle consumption amid a cooling housing market; 3)strong demand ahead of the end of the vehicle purchase tax cut; and4) a boost to demand for alternative fuel vehicles from the corporateaverage fuel-consumption evaluation system. Challenges include: 1) aYoY decline in sales volume of domestic brands for two consecutivemonths; 2) a high base effect; and 3) narrower discounts offered byautomakers towards the year-end. Thus, we expect the PV salesvolume to grow less than 3% YoY in 4Q17, but it still facesuncertainties. We believe the sales volume and earnings of most PVmanufacturers to increase notably QoQ in 4Q17.
Risks
The end of the vehicle purchase tax cut has milder-than-expectedeffect.

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